The story of the year in our poker game has to be the ascension of Paul to the top of our pool. No one saw this coming. Is it luck? has Hell frozen over? Is he taking some sort of "Brain Steroid" pill? Replaced by Aliens? the theories are numerous. How did this perennial pinyata rise to the top of the heap. I will attempt to address this in a logical fashion.
At first yes I wrote it off as luck like getting Double Aces twice in a row the statistical probability of winning is always there. The first time Paul took me out to win the night I was convinced it was cards. I ignored the evidence, you don't get to heads up on luck, you have to beat some very tough players.
The second time was the kicker. I went at Paul in my usual style supremely confident I would take all his chips easily in spite of his chip lead. I would force him to fold when I had bad cards and get him to call me when I had good cards, this worked extremely well for me in 2010. Instead when I bet to push him off he would re-raise and force me to fold! I felt like I was in a Rocky movie but I was Apollo Creed - over-confident and unprepared; and Balboa just kept throwing punches, my confidence was shattered. Yes it came down to an all in that went his way but really I was beat on every level, both mentally and strategically.
I studied Paul's play for the next few weeks, much the same as I do with our best players which I had to admit he now was. The best poker players have different play styles at different points in a tournament and up until now I would have said Jim and I were the players who really changed our style of play in response to the stages of the game. Paul's success is based on post 9:00 play. Before 9:00 his game has improved but still has some of the old mistakes, that can be seen by his number of buy-ins. After 9:00 is where he shines, his style becomes super-tight but very aggressive with the few hands he plays; this is exactly how most poker books tell you to play at that stage of a tournament. He plays to survive first and foremost and make players pay when he does get powerful cards. Jim and myself have been doing it that way for quite sometime.
Paul has another advantage, nobody saw him coming. Watch John, Jim or myself when any two of us are in a hand. We are completely focused on our opponent we study their play styles, note their habits and look for errors and hints. Hence the 60-40 rule, we think every hand about Jim's ability to bluff with garbage. When Kevin checks on flop but bets the turn I know he hit the flop hard, 3 of a kind or a straight. When John pushes hard on every betting round I know he is capable of doing it with absolutely nothing. Every bet I open 3000+ a number of players at our table are try to fit that into my style and predict what I'm holding. Nobody does that with Paul . . . . yet. Well I am now, he is a proven winner and I won't underestimate him again.
This is what makes our Wednesday nights so much fun, admittedly I am in 3rd rather than 1st as I was in the fall but the game is more exciting; Paul is making me work hard at my game. Who will be the story of the 2nd part of the year?
Good luck on Wednesday everyone,
B
