Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The Three Amigos

The three amigos are three players at our table with a very loose aggressive style that has had a big impact on our game. Why did this style hit critical mass with the addition of a third member and how do you play against it?

Basically the strategy is to see as many hands as possible and then capitalize on ones you flop. The real problem with 3 players is inevitably one of them hits. 

A good example is the following;

Versus 2 players with weak hands it looks like this;
A Hearts K Spades 46.74%
8 Clubs 5 Hearts 24.03%
10 Spades 6 Spades 28.98%

AK is very dominant in this scenario and played with caution is a very powerful hand.

Versus 3 players there is a huge shift;
A Hearts K Spades 34.08%
8 Clubs 5 Hearts 18.41%
10 Spades 6 Spades 23.67%
Q Hearts 3 Hearts 22.94%

AK is now a 34% hand, not very good odds for one the best hands in poker. Also if he is in trouble on the flop as he will have no ability to assess his opponents fit when they could be on any cards.

This is why adding a third wild card has had such a big impact to our game, it causes the tipping point that makes previously strong pre-flop hands very precarious after a poor flop. You can very easily end up betting into someone with 2 pair when they hit a flop like 5,8,K and losing your stack.

How do we play against this? 

Combating this kind of loose play is what the tight aggressive strategy is all about. It’s why good players usually raise 3x the Big Blind pre-flop and raise again after the flop when they hold strong cards. You need to make it expense to see cards. If even one person folds before the flop you are back in the driver seat and with a bigger pot to win. Letting loose players see cards cheaply devalues strong hands. Ideally when the blinds get higher your raise should be able to get your opponents down to two (46% favorite) or one player (61%+ favorite) with a larger pot at win. The loose players can’t play all those hands if they are playing 3x the blinds on a consistent basis and you’re winning more chips.  What happens with friendly games is we get sloppy. We like to see the flop as cheaply as possible but what we were really doing was allow the 3 amigos to take advantage of our passive betting.  The third member skewed the odds enough that the conventionally strong hands had their value greatly reduced. 

Tight aggressive play was designed to stop this strategy and if you examine the games of our players that are doing well against the amigos you will see that is exactly how they are playing.

Good Luck tonight!